Okay, not being able to specify the source interface for the Ping from a MX is just to do with the firmware version.
The summary of what you've proven so far is the following:
- There is a path from the MXs LAN interface (192.168.235.170) to and from the DVR since you are able to ping the DVR from your machine when on the same subnet.
- The MX is correctly performing the port map from the outside to the inside; you've shown traffic captures of traffic to x.126.204.197:8014 from the WAN, and captures to 192.168.3.14:8014 from the LAN interface.
In all cases of traffic coming from outside the WAN only SYN packets are ever seen, no return traffic is seen.
Between the MX and the DVR (if my understanding is correct) there is a Fortigate device providing SD-WAN services, and a ASA in front of the subnet that the DVR is on.
My gut feel at this point in time is that the reverse path for traffic from the DVR back to the MX is broken for public IP addresses (remember that the port map doesn't change the source IP address of the incoming packet, only the destination). This is going to be on either the Fortigate or the ASA. Although they correctly route traffic back to the 192.168.235.0/24 network, they're not routing public IP addresses back (e.g. 189.53.34.42).
It is entirely possible that there is a firewall/ACL blocking the traffic, but more likely I'd go with a routing issue.
You'll need to troubleshoot this from the other end, either the DVR, the ASA or the Fortigate (the closer to the DVR the better), to see if you can route traffic out to the internet via the MX.