You mention a lot about expected internet bandwidths, but not much about WAN? One of the primary use cases we see with the MX is for SD-WAN. Are you going to be using them for SD-WAN (now or future), or is your use case only for internet perimeter? Do you have a WAN at the moment, is it MPLS-based, could you make savings moving to SD-WAN?
At the end of the day, as everyone else has said I wouldn’t be skimping on the MX sizing. I’d be very reluctant to use an MX68 or MX75 for a site of 500 users (I also find it hard to believe 500 users could only require ~150Mbps of bandwidth (but I don’t know your use case). Think carefully about your traffic flows and where your VLAN Layer 3 interfaces are. Although some of the figures in the sizing guide may be applicable to only traffic heading out the WAN port (e.g. Max throughput
with all security features enabled), others will have an impact on inter-VLAN traffic if your Layer 3 interfaces are hosted on the MX (e.g. Max stateful (L3) firewall throughput in NAT mode).
The other parameters which will impact performance, and which Meraki don’t provide figures around, is the number of concurrent sessions across the device, and the rate that these are established and torn down. This is in line with the ‘simple’ approach Meraki uses, and I’d imagine is encompassed in the recommended client count.
I’d suggest making use of the free trial gear through your local Meraki rep if you can, and do some performance testing to make sure you get the right size - in this instance it will be the only way to be sure.