You can go to Organization Firmware Upgrades to see the most recent changes and when they happened.
You may want to reboot your MX. While there are a variety of possibilities for what's going on, there could have been a Microsoft side change/patch. I've not heard of a recent update causing LDAP or NPS issues, but that doesn't mean it hasn't happened.
Have you attempted to do a packet capture or view the event logs on your relevant server to see if the requests from the MX are getting there and what might be happening?
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