Independent of your topology failovers will happen in two scenario's. 1) Both WAN's are down in the primary (in this case the primary MX will send a VRRP message that excludes the primary firewall as active forwarder). 2) The spare unit no longer gets any VRRP messages from the primary. ( if the active firewall is still there then you will have an active active scenario with instability as effect ).
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